California Crossroads

California voters have put the state at a crossroads. Using Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken" as an analogy. One is a road deeply trodden black from elections past, the other grassy and wanting for wear.

One road will echo the path of Washington the past eighteen months, the other provide the people with protection from reckless spending, higher taxes and continuing failed economic policies that have pushed our state, and nation, down the road of insolvency.

With our gerrymandered districts for State Senate and Assembly there is little chance the composite of the California Legislature will change. It will remain firmly in control of Democratic majorities, who will need just a few defectors from the GOP side to pass any budgets. Not needed will be any defections to pass mountains of legislation that impact businesses, daily life and continue the intrusion of the state into our lives.

Our government is set up with a system of checks and balances, you learned about them in high school, or should have. Unfortunately too many voters, most voters, do not appreciate their role in the checks and balances between the Legislature and the Executive. Having one party with a significant control over the Legislature and the Executive removes safeguards for extreme legislation.

In the primary election yesterday Meg Whitman secured the Republican nomination in a brutal campaign with mostly Steve Poizner. Whitman trounced Poizner but in the campaign he took more than an ounce of flesh. In a critical election, once again the California Republican Party shows no discipline, no cohesion and assists the Democrats with a close primary fight that wounds the winner financially and politically. Whitman having secured the nomination of the minority party must now unite not only the Republican Party but also enough Independent and Conservative Democrats (are there any in California) to upset her opponent. If Poizner truly cared about this election he would start today in congratulating Whitman on the race and work hard for her campaign for November--without his supporters the race is lost.

Whitman's opponent is no surprise. Spending perhaps $100,000 through the primary former Governor Jerry Brown secured the nomination in a landslide. Making no news, merely sitting back and letting the two Republican candidates pound the politics out of each other, Brown's campaign just ran their DVRs and recorded what a fellow Republican said about Brown's opponent. The Democrats kept any serious candidates out of the race allowing no spears to chink Brown's armor.

Jerry Brown is an open book. He will campaign as close to the center as he can get. He need not appeal to the Democratic base because he is the base: he defines liberalism in California as shown by his years in the Governor's mansion, Mayor of Oakland and more recently as Attorney General. His sole campaign strategy will be to appeal to Independents and the right-wing of the Democratic Party. Sound familiar to November 2008? Like then Senator Obama, Brown can leave his principles and ideology off the campaign trail and pick them back up when, if, elected.

Quickly looking down ticket it is a landslide for Democrats: Lt. Governor will pit Abel Maldonado (R) against San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome (D). Maldonado has angered many in the GOP with his vote to raise taxes last year; Newsome is Jerry Jr. with his liberal agenda and willingness to ignore the California Constitution for his own political gain and popularity.

Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D) will face unknown Damon Dunn and unless she is caught doing something illegal will cruise to victory, though depending on the illegal act California voters will probably ignore and transgressions and re-elect her anyway.

Similarly Treasurer Bill Lockyer (D) will face Mimi Walters in a race that should mirror the Secretary of State race.

Perhaps showing some competitiveness will be the race for Attorney General between Kamala Harris (D) and Steve Cooley (R). Cooley has a record that can appeal to the middle, but enough to defeat rising star Harris? He may not contain the GOP base, which would be a shame for that base if they do not support him, if not he goes down.

Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Attorney General, at a minimum four of the five seats can, and probably will, go Democrat. Facing the "checks" and "balances" of a Democratic Senate and Democratic Assembly.

So the question Californians need to ask is this: Can our state afford having every statewide office plus the Legislature in the control of one party? If you answer "no" then you need to support Meg Whitman for Governor, not just with your vote but with your voice, your money and your relationships. If you answer "yes" then just sit back and wait.

I shall be telling this with a sigh

Somewhere ages and ages hence:

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—

I took the one less traveled by,

And that has made all the difference.

Excerpt from "The Road Not Taken" by Robert Frost

Will California take the one less traveled by?

DCS06092010

Election June 8th

In two weeks we have the opportunity to once again exercise the most most important right we have as American citizens: voting. With a lot on the ballot I will run through my two cents for the races on the Democratic and Republican primary ballots.

Note that I am a registered Republican so the recommendations below indicate that barring some unforeseen circumstance this is how I will be completing my ballot. For the Democratic candidates I am using my wife's sample ballot and will provide my thoughts on why if I were a registered Democrat for my choice.

Governor: It seems the Democrats have only one selection: Jerry Brown. While he has six opponents none of them have a chance. With Jerry you will be getting an old fashioned liberal. For the Republican side I am voting for Meg Whitman, I feel she has the stronger backbone to stand up to the Democratic majority that is guaranteed to hold in the Legislature against further tax increases and expansion of our state government.

Lt. Governor: This is an anyone but vote and I need to do a little more research but it seems tough to beat the ones with name recognition. For Republicans anyone by Abel Maldonado who sold out on his personal vow to not raise taxes as a member of the California Senate and cast the vote needed to give us the highest tax increase in history last year. He did it so he could be appointed Lt. Governor by Schwarzenegger, thankfully the Democrats in the Legislature have not confirmed him. On the Democratic side anyone but serial law breaker Gavin Newsom. As Mayor he has encouraged law breaking by making San Francisco a sanctuary city, performing gay marriages and even cheating on his wife. The guy seems to have no moral compass for right or wrong, for law or lawlessness, it is what ever makes him happy.

Attorney General: Republicans need to vote for John Eastman, who I wrote about in March and am endorsing. For the Democrats I know that Kamala Harris has support locally, but as DA in San Francisco she has aided and abetted the law-breaking of Mayor Newsom, while I am in favor of gay marriages it is not the law in California, he job as DA and as AG if elected is to enforce the law not allow politicians to break the laws. For Democrats I would take Chris Kelly, like Eastman a non-politician with no favors to pay-back. We need a strong AG to enforce the laws and Constitution of this State, not go off on their own agenda as we have seen with current AG Jerry Brown.

Insurance Commissioner: I can't believe we vote for this position. On the Republican side we have one member of the Legislature who like Maldonado broke a no tax pledge to his constituents (Villines) who I cannot vote for, therefore I am voting for Brian Fitzgerald who is in the Insurance Department's enforcement division. On the Democrats side two members of the Legislature are running, Hector De La Torre who annually tries to pass a law to give illegal immigrants drivers' licenses and Dave Jones. I hold my nose and vote for Jones.

U.S. Senate: I doubt any Democrat will beat incumbent Barbara Boxer, ma'am, though I think it is funny that uber-liberal Mickey Kaus is running against her because she is not liberal enough. On the Republican ballot I stick with my endorsement of Carly Fiorina from February. Acknowledging that Tom Campbell and Chuck Devore are very good candidates and would do a very good job, I think Fiorina has the best chance of unseating Boxer.

U.S. Representative (37th): Yeah! I actually have a candidate on the GOP primary for the 37th District! And it is a great candidate with a solid chance to win the general election in November: Star Parker. On the Democrats side we have incumbent Laura Richardson who is under ethics investigations and has a well chronicled history of personal financial mismanagement versus two always-runs and a new comer. The new comer deserves support and votes from local Democrats, Terry Ponchak. He is from the Bixby Knolls area of Long Beach, local attorney, involved in the community and is not Richardson. I wish him well in unseating an incumbent in the primary--it has happened in other parts of the country will local voters see it happen here?

Member of the Assembly (55th): For Republicans there is one name on the ballot, Christopher Salabaj. For Democrats incumbent and organized labor's best friend Warren Furutani who has never met an anti-business/pro-labor rally he didn't like, he should have an SEIU patch on his suit.

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Not a visible office but an important one, both parties have the same names on their ballots. I have not researched every person, however I do know that Diane Lenning on the bottom of the ballot has been criss-crossing the state listening to parents, teachers and administrators as she campaigns for office. I am voting Lenning.

Propositions: NO on all propositions but Prop 13 which limits the reassessment of property that has undergone seismic retrofitting. My initial instinct would be to vote no on this, however if a building has to undergo state mandated seismic retrofitting, as in a hospital or private school or college, then why should that retrofit further increase costs by raising taxes? Yes on Prop 13.

Regarding Prop 14, aka the open primaries proposition, I am against this. This proposition only helps the majority party and hurts the minority party and minority candidates. A case in point is the race for governor. There is no way that Jerry Brown loses the Democratic nomination. If Prop 14 were law now this guaranteed win allows the Democrats to encourage their party members in key districts to vote for the candidate of the Democrats choice, most likely the candidate least likely to win the November election. The same can happen in strong Republican districts for Assembly and Senate, GOP voters putting votes to the weakest Democratic candidates to ensure wins in November. If we are having open primaries then ban parties and make all statewide offices non-partisan and run like city council elections, unless someone gets 50% plus one of the votes then have a run-off. Open primaries allows more dishonesty into the political process, vote no on Prop 14.

The only major news that can come from this election is the race between Ponchak and Richardson for the Democratic nomination for the House of Representatives, if Ponchak can upset Richardson it will continue the story of an upset electorate across the country. I hope this is the story that is on the top of the fold on June 9th: Ponchak Wins.

DCS05262010

Citizen Unrest

In Utah last week a United States Senator was removed from his party's primary at the state wide party convention. Three term Senator Bob Bennett (R) became the first incumbent in the current election cycle to be removed from office not of his own volition.

Number two went down yesterday in the West Virginia Democratic primary when Alan Mollohan was defeated in his bid to defend a seat he has held since 1982. That is not a typo, he has won fourteen straight elections for the seat, a seat his father had held for the fourteen years before that. In 2008 Mollohan was re-elected with almost 100% of the vote, only 130 voted against him.

Upcoming is the interesting re-election bid of Senator Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Specter switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat in 2009 figuring it would help his chances of re-election. Specter is tied in some polls and behind in some others against Rep. Joe Sestak. Things are so bad for Specter that President Obama has pulled his support and will not visit the state for him or show any support--thanks for giving us the 60 seat majority in the Senate Arlen but I've lost enough elections lately appears to be the message.

So for twenty Republicans have announced their retirement from Congress and seventeen Democrats. What is of importance in the retirements is that almost all of the Republican vacancies will be in "safe" seats whereas almost all of the Democratic retirements are in seats where a challenge to the incumbent, either in the primary or general election, can prove successful. Democrats in Congress when faced with a challenging election fight and possible defeat versus retiring have mostly opted for the latter.

None of this should be a surprise, though many in the media who have discounted the citizen unrest that rose throughout last spring and the summer over Obamacare seem surprised. Despite efforts of the Mainstream Media, the left and Democratic leadership to portray Tea Party activists and those who attend their rallies as racist, extremist, dangerous or otherwise disconnected from Main Street America, the citizens and voters across the country are saying otherwise. The general sentiment in most Congressional districts is one of "enough."

Enough of the arrogance and entitlement of incumbency. Enough of putting down the American people as not smart enough to understand what is good for them. Enough of passing life changing legislation against our desires. Enough of huge deficits and growing public debt. Enough of fiscal policies that guarantee more and more taxes and regulation in the future. Enough.

The unrest is not just focused on federal politicians but also state and local incumbents are taking heat and facing difficult re-election bids. What can be challenging in California is gauging the sentiment in other parts of the country. With a vast majority of our population concentrated in the mass urban areas of San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose and Los Angeles-Long Beach-San Diego the liberal mindset of the general populace and media has far more impact than say Oklahoma with two relatively small cities in Tulsa and Oklahoma City, or Ohio with spread out smaller urban areas of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus. The bubble in California has enabled and supported a strong movement to big government from the cities through the counties up to Sacramento. Gerrymandered districts ensure incumbency, even with term limits the replacements are the same ideologically as their predecessors, and continued government growth.

Are even Californians becoming sufficiently dissatisfied to start challenging the government status quo at all levels of government? In Long Beach the recent elections suggest perhaps not as three out of three incumbents on the ballot easily won re-election to City Council, as did the Mayor, and of two incumbents running write in campaigns one has made a run-off. With primary elections approaching in June there is little competition for any of the incumbents up and down the ballot from within their party. I say party as with the exception of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher who represents the southern part of Long Beach, all of our incumbents are Democrats.

The main exception is a challenge to Rep. Laura Richardson from Terry Ponchak in the Democratic primary. In many parts of the country Ponchak may have a good shot at defeating a member of Congress who has voted lock-step with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, including the $787 Billion Stimulus bill that has done nothing and Obamacare. Added to that are her well documented personal financial problems, including a foreclosure that was mysteriously reversed and several local merchants who have been stiffed by her for services and goods provided in the past. She blatantly sold her seat on the Long Beach City Council to the unions in a bid to force unionization on local hotels just before her run for State Assembly then leveraged those same connections to beat better qualified Jenny Orepeza in the Democratic primary for her current seat. Unfortunately Ponchak is running against an incumbent with $1 million in funds in a not very educated voting base. While I wish Ponchak well in his run I feel any chance to beat this incumbent will come from the Republican side in the general election from Star Parker.

The citizen unrest does not begin and end at the ballot box. More and more citizens are demanding answers from the bureaucrats and leaders of the various levels of government as to how their tax money is spent on salaries, benefits and pensions. Fueling the unrest is the growing realization by the citizenry of the immense power and influence the public employees unions have in selecting candidates and funding political campaigns to ensure labor friendly votes in the legislatures. With the State of California running deficits into the tens of billions of dollars, voters want to know why departments are buying whole new fleets of cars, why many employees receive up to 50% of their income in overtime, why we have an unfunded pension obligation approaching $500 billion dollars, and that is just at the state level.

Locally Long Beach is running a deficit of almost $20 million, again, and the same targets are on the radar of unrest, the size of the city government and number of employees and the salaries, pension and benefit obligations being paid by the citizens. Incumbents get re-elected and city leadership throughout the top levels stay the same and deficits continue. While the size of the government does not shrink basic services such as road repair, library hours, and public safety decline.

To show the issue the Long Beach Post yesterday posted a link that lists every city employee, their classification and salary. It has caused quite an uproar with the employees who feel their privacy has been violated, but the information has been made public by the city under a public records request. While the ethics of posting names is debated the underlying issue is the sheer number of employees and the total financial obligation in salaries, benefits and pensions.

I presume that very few Tea Party attendees are government workers. Assuming that I am correct and most are in private industries, employed by small and medium sized businesses, or small business owners themselves, it is easy to see their anti-big government position. It is natural for them to make the observations regarding their companies and industries in comparison with government: While our industry has become much more efficient through technological advancement and investment, government has not. While we have been able to grow our business by leveraging technology instead of employees, government has not. While our industry has had to lay off 20% of its workforce due to economic down turn, government has not--in fact it has added jobs.

As an ideological outsider to most I come in contact with in Long Beach and California I am amazed at the lack of understanding of those upset and dissatisfied with government and its fiscal irresponsibility from Long Beach to Washington D.C. The echo chamber of local opinion and ideology creates a sense that everyone thinks the same way and an incomprehension of how the people in Nevada, Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania can some how unseat their incumbents and those who share their ideas of big government.

Well it is happening. Maybe not here in Long Beach or in California, yet, but on the other side of the Colorado River citizens across the country are saying "enough." While the publishers and editors of the Long Beach Post are taking considerable heat from city employees, and may suffer some economic consequences if their advertisers do not stand by them, by posting for all citizens to see who gets our tax dollars they are starting the conversation in Long Beach that could lead to true fiscal reform and an overhaul of our local government.

Or maybe not. Incumbents are pretty comfy in California, therefore so are top managers, leaders and workers in the government offices...at least until the majority of voters decide to change how they vote.

CORRECTION: I inadvertantly used 2008 revenue for Richardson's campaign funds, here is link to her 2010 campaign funds, as you can see she has only $40,000 in the bank and over $330,000 in debts---not at all ironic given the deficit she has helped rack up in Washington.

The opensecrets.org site does not yet have campaign finance information on the other candidates for the seat, Democrat Terry Ponchak or Republican Star Parker.

DCS0512010