Is Obama On Tilt?

Poker is a game that is rich in language and strategy. Good poker players know they are not playing their cards but rather playing their opponents. They read their opponents looking for "tells," signs from their opponents that signify what kind of hand they have. Are they playing with their chips different, slouching and looking upset, anxious to shove chips, giving any sign, or tell as to what their hand may be?

Read tells of their opponent determines if they call a bet, bluff a set of rags (bad cards), limp along trying to show a weak hand, or storm all in shoving every chip in the pile daring their opponent to call the bet. Being able to read the other players at the table is a lot more important than the strength of the cards in your hand.

In poker if a player has lost a hand on a very bad beat, such as his opponent pulling the one card out of 52 in the deck that could give him the winning hand, if a player loses a good stack of chips on a bad beat he can go into a funk. The funk is known as being "on tilt" and is often characterized by a bad decision or two in the ensuing hands. Often a player on tilt plays himself out of a tournament, or all his cash.

The very best players recognize when they are on tilt and become very tight players, folding hands they would normally play and only playing if they get top cards. They take a few hands off to regroup, refocus and reset their internal emotions and instincts.

In poker there can come a time when one player has significantly more chips than his opponents to be able to control the game. Wise poker players with large stacks control the table in a manner where everyone knows they are in control, but at the same time look for hands and situations to eliminate other players from the game. The wise player picking and choosing hands to collect more chips from opponents until game over, using his large stack to put opponents in difficult decisions to call bets and possibly lose it all, or fold their hand having lost just a few more chips.

Amateur players play their own cards and do not have the ability to read and analyze opponents as well as the professional and experienced players. Amateur players with large stacks often begin storming into hands and trying to bully opponents, and often find themselves taking a bad beat or two, finding themselves on tilt and suddenly not in control of the table any more.

At some point there is some luck involved, but a lot more so for the amateur than for the seasoned professional, who more often than not make their own luck. More than luck success is dependent on knowing your opponents, being able to calculate odds for hitting certain hands for yourself and your opponent, ability to out maneuver opponents into betting hands you want them to bet, and managing your resources, i.e. chips, so you can last to the end.

Last January President Obama and the Democrats were starting the new year with the largest stacks of chips in the poker game of American politics. They had plenty of investors having securely won the Presidential election and insurmountable majorities in both houses of Congress. Over the course of the next twelve months they have managed to squander their stacks on bad cards, and bad reads of the others in the game. Most notably they misread the player in politics that counts the most: the American voter.

The first hand was an "all-in" situation by Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress, passing the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Ostensibly to provide jobs for Americans immediately the ARRA still has over 60% of the funds left unspent. A huge spending bill filled with pork it passed in a matter of days and told the American people "we control the table and will use our chips and position to pass what we want."

After the bill was passed and the cost and where the funds were going became more publicized grumbling began with the voters. Next up was "Cap and Trade" legislation that would add hundreds of billions of costs to American industries, shove more manufacturing jobs out of our country into others and cost jobs. While this was being debated unemployment numbers in American began to grow. The members of the House and the Senate who have more seasoning in the political poker game began reading the public and pulled back on the Cap and Trade bill and let it languish in political purgatory.

On top of this the American automakers were failing and about to go under. Rather than let that happen, Obama and Congress pushed more chips into the game and sent billions to GM and Chrysler, and then billions more. It was seen by the public as not a bailout for the automakers but for the United Autoworkers. Decades of increasingly bad contracts for the companies and increasingly beneficial for UAW members pushed the automakers to the brink. More discontent among the American public caught the eye of a few more players in Congress.

Pushing more chips into the pot, Obama flew off to Europe to try to secure the Olympics for his home town of Chicago. More chips sent him to Virginia and New Jersey to campaign for Democrats running for governor in those states. More chips from Obama and Democrats in Congress when they headed to Copenhagen to craft a global warming agreement that would put America at a severe economic and manufacturing disadvantage and cost hundreds of billions more. Bringing terrorists bent on killing Americans from military lock ups to trial in New York City with the same rights as American citizens. Closing the terrorist prison at Guantanamo Bay. Loss. Loss. Loss. Loss. Loss. Loss.

Chips began to move from the stacks of Obama and Congressional leadership and to the stacks of other players. Power began shifting at the table.

The biggest hand of the game so far was health care. Making secret deals away from the table to gain more chips from other players, Obama and his allies in Congress made deals with three individual states at the expense of others, deals with the pharmaceutical industry, with the American Medical Association and with organized labor. Each of these deals cost the American public more money and gave these groups those funds. Cobbling the deals together it appeared that Obama, House Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the far-left of the Democratic Party had bought the cards needed to win the hand.

The cost was dear as the American public was amassing its own stack of chips and they were collecting more and more from the center and center left of American politics for the right and center right to play. And play them they did last Tuesday in Massachusetts when a fellow name Scott Brown pulled an Ace on the hole card. Obama and his allies have lost most of their stack on this hand after bleeding much of their stack the previous twelve months.

This past week President Obama had the appearance of a player on tilt, joining him were his allies in the media who have been pushing his agenda and government take over of health care, encouraging Obama to ignore the obvious tells of the other players, especially the American voter, and push ahead betting more chips. Finally taking a read of the American voter Pelosi and Reid seemed to sense that the cards and chips have shifted and have sat back and not made any bets since Tuesday. Obama and his Administration have taken to the airwaves and speech circuit and continue to bet chips.

Of the hundreds and hundreds of speeches and television appearances Obama has made in the past fifty-three weeks as President none has been more important than the State of the Union speech this evening. It will provide a tell for the American public and how to play their chips in the coming year and midterm elections.

Will Obama continue his misreading of an American public that has as many people disapproving of his performance as approving? Will he continue to misread the members of Congress who last February rushed through his stimulus bill? Will he lash out at opponents, lecture the nation and look somewhat petulant? Will he adhere to his belief that he knows better than the public what is good for them? Will President Obama push more chips into the game playing the same cards he had when he lost most of his stack?

Is Obama on tilt?

Just Some Questions

Below are questions I have asked myself throughout the past week. Instead of writing what my answers to them would be I am interested in any answers you may have, or additional questions you have asked yourself.

For the week starting Saturday January 16, 2010 here are some questions I have had:

Now that ObamaCare is dead and the public option nowhere in sight, how many Canadians will now live because they can still get better care here than at home?

Tremendous flooding in the neighborhood by Wilson H.S. in Long Beach was caused by a mattress that floated onto and clogged a storm drain, when they hauled out the mattress was the “Do Not Remove This Tag” tag still attached?

Favorite television theme song?

Does your routine change very much with the weather? How?

Split pea or navy bean with ham soup?

What is the radio station on your #1 button in your car?

Which bothers you more cold hands or cold feet?

Raisins in your oatmeal?

Did Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts surprise you?

What should Congress do now about health care reform?

When was the last time you said to someone, “You told me so”?

Question I asked at our dinner table this week: What is the most important ‘thing’ or principle in a marriage?

Are you better at math or spelling?

Now that the focus is off health care reform and on jobs, what can Washington do to make a difference in turning around the unemployment numbers?

Will the change in direction as a result of national polls and elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts have any impact on California elections, state or national offices, in November?

Will you/did you watch Conan’s final Tonight Show Friday night?

Avatar?

Winter 4th grade: what did you just think of?

Where do wasps go in the winter?

If you were Speaker of the House or Majority Leader of the Senate what would be your top two priorities for legislation before summer recess?

Any chance you will do something spontaneous and child like this weekend?

Cookies or Pie?

So those are the questions, what are your answers? Click on the comments button below and let us know what you think.

The People's Seat

This past summer I spoke to my Dad while he was enjoying a prolonged stay in Sweden. He was unusually, but happily, disconnected from the news in America. "What's happening?" he asked.
"Dad you would be so proud of the American people. They are speaking up across the country. Not just activists but ordinary Americans are travelling to town hall meetings and rallies given by members of Congress and demanding answers to questions on the health care legislation."

Americans spoke again yesterday in Massachusetts. On President Barack Obama's 365th day in office the most liberal and Democratic state in the union voted overwhelmingly against his policies, leadership and direction. The cradle of liberty, the home of the Boston Tea Party, the Shot Heard Round the World, John and Samuel Adams, Paul Revere, spoke with a clear voice, "No." The people of Massachusetts voted to fill the people's seat in the Senate with a Republican, Scott Brown, with 52% of the vote and a five point victory of the Democratic candidate.

Throughout the summer the mainstream media and Democrats tried to spin the townhall meetings as foaming Republicans screaming at Democratic members of Congress. They ignored the senior citizens who came out in droves to ask about their Medicare. They ignored the speakers from the audience who would preface remarks with, "I am a registered Democrat" or "I voted for President Obama." As the House barely passed Speaker Nancy Pelosi's health care bill, with one Republican crossing the aisle (a Republican filling a seat created when a Louisiana Democrat was caught with $98,000 in bribe money in his freezer, a district that is over 70% registered Democrat) the mainstream press and far-left partisans cried, "Bi-partisan support!" When in fact it was by-partisan opposition.

Throughout the fall as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid horse-traded over his version of a health care bill, not publishing the bill, not allowing it to be read except in his office as he brought in recalcitrant Democrats to strong arm their support, the mainstream media and far-left partisans cried, "Republicans are blocking health care reform." When in truth it was Democrats blocking the bill since no Republicans were required to pass the legislation. After bribing Senators with Federal tax dollars, Reid finally got his votes and passed his version of health care reform.

The President cheered, Pelosi cheered, Reid cheered, the editors of the Washington Post, New York Times, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times cheered, the news directors and anchors at ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN cheered, the publishers of Time and Newsweek cheered. And they thought the American people were cheering with them. Ignoring the polls being published daily, ignoring the emails and letters being sent to Washington, ignoring the people back home in real American who vote, they cheered.

Cracks and fissures were visible all over the Democratic party, Pelosi and Reid were urged by Obama and members of his administration to get a deal done. Get the Senate version and the House version reconciled before his State of the Union. He wanted it done before summer recess. He wanted it done before winter recess. He had to have it done before the State of the Union. Obama and the Democratic leadership did not care what was in the bill, just that they passed one to hold up to the American people and say, "See? See what we have done for you?"

With arrogance and contempt of the people who disagreed with the tactics, the process and the content of the bills being reconciled Democrats in Congress were being urged to pass a bill, "we can explain it to them once it passes." "Them" being us, you and I.

But the plan did not work. The plan to arm twist moderate Democrats into voting a bill through was seen as twisting the arms of the people back home. People in Agawam (64% Brown) didn't like the bills or the process. People in Dedham (55% Brown) didn't like it. Adams, Hanover, Rowley, towns across Massachusetts were filled with people who said, "No." And this time they have to listen. But will they?

Since his election there have been three significant special elections where President Obama has travelled to the state to campaign for the Democratic candidate. And each time the Republican has won the race. In Virginia, in New Jersey and now in Massachusetts. Each time the candidate was blamed, certainly it could not be the President. As excuses and blame begin this morning, Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley, will be blamed for running a bad campaign--she did. She will be blamed for not taking her opponent seriously and assuming a Republican could not win in Massachusetts--she did. She will be blamed for costing the Democrats the critical 60 seat super-majority they have held throughout 2009--she did not.

What cost the Democrats this seat was the Democrats, specifically the Democratic leadership, the Gang of Three (Obama, Pelosi, Reid) pushed their agenda with such arrogance and ignorance of those objecting to the reach of the policies and agenda and the costs. The voters in Massachusetts echo almost exactly the national polls: No. No huge deficits and spending. No to your version of health care reform. No to your trying to hijack the democratic processes of the United States Congress.

Ironically the results in Massachusetts is the best result possible for Democrats facing re-election this fall. The Senate cannot pass a reconciled bill because there are now only 99 Senators until Brown is sworn in. In the House, Pelosi can try to strong arm her fellow Democrats one more time, this time to pass the Senate version of health care exactly as presented; but those who already voted against it won't change their vote and those who compromised before see Massachusetts' results and will say "no thanks." So the current versions of health care reform die in conference. And when they hit the campaign trail this summer and fall the Democrats can say, "Republicans blocked health care. We didn't get a chance to pass a bill that would help all Americans." They have their blame, and they are not blamed for passing a bill that would add trillions in debt and forever change how health care is delivered and paid for in our country.

For Democrats in swing states and 50-50 districts, no health care bill is better than the ones being presented in Washington. The people of Massachusetts told them that.

Moving forward for the Republicans, what Scott Brown delivered was an opportunity and a rallying cry. In a debate last week Brown was asked about filling "Ted Kennedy's seat." Brown replied, "This is not Ted Kennedy's seat, this is not any party's seat or any individual's seat. This is the people's seat." That statement pointed out the arrogance and assumption of the Democratic leadership in Boston and in Washington D.C. This underdog candidate who was behind by 30 points when his election started pointed out to the nation what our Constitution states, our leaders are representatives of the people. Not of parties. Not of special interests. Not of corporations or unions. Of the people, for the people and by the people.

This is the slogan and talking point the Republicans need to take to the Hastings this summer and fall. Rekindling the voice the people felt in last year's town hall meetings and the nascent Tea Party movement that has remained strong, remind the voters that they control government. They are the ones who actually vote and whose votes are counted. So speak! Make your district's seat the people's seat.

As for opportunity, now is the time for Republicans in Washington to come together and make a united statement regarding health care. I have written several times in the past about how I feel health care reform should progress, and I hope Republicans adopt some of the process. Primarily to put together a Pledge For Health Care Reform. Much like Newt Gingrich's Contract With America that led to GOP victories in 1996 during Clinton's first term, the Pledge would be a simple to read and understand step-by-step outline of what the Republicans wish to see in health care reform. Once drafted they can work with Democrats who have been resistant to Reid and Pelosi and Obama to have them sign the Pledge.

The Pledge should state that health care reform is needed, but needs to proceed methodically and incrementally and not all at once. Reform Medicare and Medicaid to eliminate waste and fraud. Tort reform to take the practice of defensive medicine from the burdens of our doctors and hospitals. Allow insurance companies to offer insurance across state lines to increase competition and lower costs to consumers. Remove the burden of providing insurance from employers so people do not lose their insurance when they change jobs, freeing people to shop for health care insurance that is best for them and not their employers. Protect hospitals and health care providers from the over-burdensome regulations and bureaucracies that prevent growth and expansion. With each of the items provide a timeline. Project into the future that the Pledge will be offered to all candidates for Federal office to ensure work will continue when they are gone.

In what might be the biggest upset in modern politics a Republican won an election for United States Senate in Massachusetts. A simple man ran a campaign on issues, on substance and on integrity speaking directly to the people he will represent. He let them know it is their seat he will fill. The people of Massachusetts fired the shot heard around the country.

But are the people in power in Washington able to hear a shot from the people? We will see.